要點

整體看，在11月供需兩端回暖的基礎上，12月經濟資料持續好轉，主要表現為工業生產加速、製造業投資增長回升、信貸投放力度不減等。由此推動下，四季度經濟呈現微弱企穩態勢，與三季度增速一致（6%）。全年GDP同比增速維持在6.1%。四季度國內消費對GDP貢獻有所減弱，經濟增長更多依賴於投資。

雖然四季度增速不及全年，但是動能切換跡象明顯，經濟增長沒有繼續放緩，下行風險得到進一步緩釋。我們認為低位止跌不等於“冬至春來”。今年一季度經濟增長仍面臨著諸如企業生產受制於前期利潤虧損、居民失業率攀升，以及中美爭端再起等負面因素的影響。即使逆週期政策持續發力，在實際需求尚未改善的前提下，仍然難改經濟慣性下行的趨勢。

具體看，12月宏觀經濟與金融市場：

生產端，工業生產繼續趨勢加速，企業預期進一步提升，其主要受出口環境修復、地產基建相關需求旺盛和汽車生產持續改善的推動。不過，這並不意味著經濟能在短期內企穩回升，工業生產進度改善仍受實際需求疲軟，企業利潤虧損等拖累。

支出端，“三駕馬車”均持續好轉。第一、製造業投資增長大幅度跳升，進而帶動12月固定資產投資增長明顯回升。第二，消費增速維持高位，不過主要受國內通脹所支撐，實際居民消費進一步下滑，居民實際收入增長放緩與財富效應預期下行依舊是最大約束。第三，進出口貿易大幅度改善。其中出口低位反彈除了受低基數效應之外，中美宣佈簽署第一階段協定，加征關稅部分取消所帶來的外需邊際改善是主要動力。進口回升主要與11月以來大宗商品上漲、國內工業生產相對回升以及擴大由美國農產品進口有關。

融資端，社融同比增長平穩，主要受表內貸款增速上行與表外融資降幅減弱所支撐。雖然表內信貸投放，特別是中長期貸款持續改善，但是主要滿足的是大型企業、國企央企的生產經營、城投平臺債務置換，以及房地產非標置換的融資需求，對於中小微企業而言，特別是前期的經營匱乏，利潤虧損的企業，融資難的現狀未有實質性變化。

從私募股權的視角看，我們建議今年關注以下四方面的投資機會：

第一，智慧製造。新舊動能轉換下，傳統製造業設備更新和技改投入領域值得關注，例如人工智慧、5G、工業互聯網等新一代資訊技術與製造業融合發展等。我們認為中國工業4.0的進程才剛剛開始，智慧製造將繼續在“十四五”規劃內列入重點。此外，可以關注其他戰略性產業鏈的發展與整合機會，包括新材料、生物技術、新能源汽車、新能源、節能環保等相關產業。

第二，公募REITs。隨著中國經濟增速放緩，如何提高投資效率，盤活商業不動產、租賃住房與基建項目所佔用的大量資金，促進再投資能力，通過政策引導支持產業轉型，消費升級等，已經是當前經濟改革的重要抓手。根據觀察，政策層將在今年內正式啟動公募REITs。建議對REITs政策與業務試點保持跟蹤與關注，對REITs產品市場需求進行充分研究，擇機推出相應的另類資產管理產品，聯合銀行一同挖掘其中的投融資機會。

第三，新消費。結構性消費降級趨勢短期內不可忽視，高性價比產品對應的行業或產業值得關注；長期內，消費升級，高品質消費仍是主流。在下行確立的大環境下，建議繼續關注消費領域的新群體、新品牌、新場景與新供應鏈/體系的投資機會。

第四，金融科技與投貸聯動。隨著國內利率市場化的深入推進，銀行在貸款市場的壟斷性將逐步打破，同時，銀行對中小微企業信貸支援的力度在不斷加大，科技型企業在銀行客戶結構比例逐步提升。雙重壓力下，一方面，銀行比以往更關注金融科技的應用。另一方面，銀行比以往更需要關注解決創新企業與銀行投融資目標不相容問題的有效模式，其中投貸聯動是一個方向。借助於投貸聯動模式，銀行可以通過股權投資機構將預期投資收益鎖定，對債務性融資提供風險補償，拓展了信貸投放的風險收益有效邊界，提高了對初創企業的服務能力。目前，一些銀行已設立了股權基金，與外部股權投資機構合作，積極部署投貸聯動。

風險方面，我們建議對國內失業率、通脹率、地方政府財資約束以及金融業全面對外開放保持關注。進一步看，當前我們正面臨著前所未有的大變局，新一輪科技革命與產業升級正加快重塑著世界，經濟新舊動能加速轉換，同時國際力量亦處於再均衡的過程中。這一切都意味著不確定性與不穩定性將更加突出。

雖然風險與挑戰加大，但是也意味著世界發展會出現新趨勢、面臨新機遇。身處其中，我們要做到“謀定而後動，知止而有得”。只有保持戰略定力，順應發展大勢，才能把握機會，實現行穩致遠。

Summary

Overall, December economic data continued to improve from the recovering supply and demand data in November. Industrial output and manufacturing investment accelerated while credit continued to support the growth. As a result, fourth quarter saw a weak stabilization where growth was the same as third quarter (6%). Whole year GDP growth holds steady at 6.1%. Final consumption expenditure’s contribution to GDP lessened in fourth quarter as the economy relied more on gross capital formation contribution to grow.

Despite the slower growth rate compared to the rest of the year, there was evidence of a dynamic shift as economic growth did not slow further and downward risk was further eased. However, we do not believe the bottoming meant the coming of Spring. First quarter 2020 growth still faces obstacles including previous period losses hampering business production, the climbing unemployment rate among residents, as well as potential recurrence of US-China trade disputes. Even as counter-cyclical policies continue to help, the economy will not reverse its slide without improvement of real demand.

December macro and financial markets in details:

On the manufacturing side, recovery of export conditions, strong demand from infrastructure and real estate investments, and improvements in automobile production pushed industrial output to accelerate. Nevertheless, these do not mean the economy would see a near-term stabilization or recovery. Industrial production was still weighed down by the lack of real demand and earlier business losses.

On the expenditure side, the “The three carriages”(The three components of GDP) continued to improve. Firstly, manufacturing investment jumped, bringing December fixed asset investment significantly higher. Secondly, domestic consumption growth maintained its fast pace, although real consumption slipped when adjusted for domestic inflation. Slowing of real domestic income growth and slumping wealth effect were the primary factors weighing down consumption. Thirdly, import and export improved remarkably. Among them, export rebounded not only because of the previous low level but also the US-China Phase One agreement and the cancellation of tariffs improved marginal demand. Import growth was mostly related to commodities’ price increase since November, recovery of domestic industrial production, and expansion of import program of US agricultural products.

On the financing side, the aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE) (flow) steadily climbed thanks to acceleration of bank loan growth and slowing of off-balance-sheet borrowing(entrusted loans, trust loans and undiscounted bankers’ acceptances) decline. Although on-balance-sheet credit supply improved, particularly on the medium- to long-term side, the loans primarily served the needs of large or state-owned enterprises, debt swapping of local government financing vehicles, as well as non-standard swapping of real estate financings. For the small- to medium-sized manufacturers, financing remained uneasy, especially for those who suffering in the previous profit-loss and inadequate management

From the perspective of private equity investment, we suggest further attention on the following four aspects during 2020:

First, smart manufacturing. As the new drivers replace the old, traditional manufacturing equipment upgrades and technological investments are worth paying attention to. Some examples include artificial intelligence, 5G, and fusion of next generation information technologies with manufacturing, such as internet of things(IoT). We believe China is still early on its path to Industry 4.0. Smart manufacturing will be a key sector in the Fourteenth Five Year Plan. In addition, development and integration opportunities in other key strategic sectors might also be worth looking into, and these include new material, biotechnology, alternative fuel vehicle, renewable energy, and environmental protection.

Second, REITs. As the Chinese economy cools, the economic reform is increasingly focusing on improving investment efficiency, putting the capital stock in commercial real estate, rental apartments, and infrastructure projects to good use, enhancing the reinvestment capability, as well as guiding industrial transformation and consumption upgrades through policies. We believe regulator will officially launch public offering REITs market within 2020. Tracking closely on REITs policies and test runs, research on REITs market demands and product design, and cooperate with banks to uncover investment and financing opportunities are recommedned.

Third, new consumption. Structural downgrade of consumption cannot be ignored in the short run, so are cost-effective products and sectors. However, over the long run, consumption upgrade and high quality consumption are still the mainstream. As the downward trend prevails, we recommend focusing on investment opportunities in new target groups, new brands, and new supply chain or systems.

Fourth, Fintech and venture lending. As interest rate liberalization deepens in China, the monopoly of banks in the credit market will be gradually broken. At the same time, banks are boosting their support for the small- to medium-sized firms, and share of tech firms among bank customers is increasing. Faced with these, the banks are paying more attention to Fintech than before. And, banks are also more concerned with finding an effective way to resolve the incompatibility between the bank’s targets and the needs of tech firms. Venture lending could be a possible path to the solution. Through venture lending, banks can lock in expected investment returns through VCPE firms, which compensates for the risks taken by debt financing, expands the effective risk-return boundary, and enhances the banks’ ability to serve start-up companies. At this time, some banks have set up equity funds to cooperate with external firms, as part of their venture lending program.

On the risk side, we recommend watching out for domestic unemployment, inflation, limits of regional government finances, and the opening up of the financial industry to foreigners. Further ahead, we see unprecedented changes as a new round of technological revolution and industrial upgrades are reshaping the world. New economic drivers are replacing old ones at a faster pace. Global forces are also in the process of rebalancing. All these mean uncertainties and instabilities will be more pronounced.

Despite the increased risks and challenges, new trends and new opportunities will also emerge as the world develops. As we are in the midst of it, the best approach is therefore careful planning and knowing what to expect. Only those who keep calm and proceed in the right direction can seize the opportunities and go far.